Football Predictions and Winning Strategy
Football Predictions| 11.06.2020
As John Brice, Chief Data Scientist of NigeriaPredictions.com saying, In 2020 people will finally "beat the bookie"
Football predictions are getting more and more precise due to the advanced technology built into the algorithms and models. Yet, many punters still can't make decent profits long term. This isn't surprising because even with the best prediction site, winning can only be guaranteed if you apply the right strategy.
The fastest way to lose terribly in the betting game as a punter is to do it without a strategy. All successful punters have one thing in common. And that is that they find a winning strategy and stick with it religiously. You must know that successful punters are usually not different from their unsuccessful counterparts in intelligence or predictive ability.
What distinguishes them then, is that successful punters have firm personal convictions. While their strategies may fail sometimes, they never second guess themselves, nor do they adopt every suggestion they encounter. So why does betting without a plan fail, and what strategies can you adopt to win? And how can you leverage trusted football prediction sites with proven algorithms to start making good profits soon?
Why A Strategy Is Important
A betting strategy is critical for bettors who have embraced sports betting as a business and are devoted to long-term success. A betting strategy works like a business plan that keeps you from straying off course and ensures you follow a well-thought-out plan with a high probability of success.
The importance of this cannot be overemphasized because sports betting can be highly risky. And thus, you need to ensure that all strategies meet a value betting standard. A value bet is one that is thought to have a mathematically higher probability of winning than is reflected in the bookie's odds.
Being oblivious of value betting is one of the biggest reasons punters lose money. Mathematically, it can be calculated with the formula,
Value bet =
Bookie Odds ×Probability (%)100-1
If you think that the probability for a bet is higher than what the bookies state, then you can perform a recalculation using the above formula and insert your new probability. If your result is greater than 1, you have a value bet, less than 1, and you don't.
For instance, if in a game of dice the odd is 6.5 to land a four, the dice has a 17% probability of landing on a four. Applying the formula, we would multiply 6.5 by 17 and divide the product by 100 minus 1. This will give us 0.105; thus, it is a value bet since it is higher than one.
The shortcoming of this method is that it is hard to know what the correct probability for a football match is because it's not like throwing a die or flipping coins.
You must understand that bookmakers scrutinize popular betting strategies, especially online ones, and they build algorithms into their models to try and curtail their losses as possibly as they can. Therefore, you need a simple strategy that can beat the bookies and guarantee you winnings in the long run. It is also essential that your plan fits your budget and agrees with your risk appetite.
At Nigeria Predictions we are developing an algorithm that calculates Value Bets in Real-Time by comparing probabilities to bookmaker odds via API connection. We call those Banker Bets and mark them with "crown".
How to Develop a Winning Strategy
1. Focus on one League
On any match day, you'll find tons of matches you can bet on across multiple leagues. This can be overwhelming, and it's common to get sucked in when you don't have a working strategy. The first step is to conserve your energies and, rather than bet randomly, pick a single football league that you understand pretty well, for example, English Premier League and focus on that alone.
2. Bet Only Fixed Amounts
Only stake a fixed amount or percentage of your fund. Football betting is a risky business, and even the best punters could go on a long losing streak. If you wish to take your betting business to another level, you must limit the amount you place on each bet as part of your betting strategy. This may seem too conservative, but you'll appreciate it in the long run.
3. Use Credible Football Prediction sites.
You can google best football prediction sites, and you'd be greeted with tons of websites that offer predictions. At this point, you must do your research patiently. The best football prediction sites use an extensive database and advanced software programs to discover hidden trends and make deductions.
As part of your strategy, you have to use the results of these advanced statistics. It is recommended that you use at least two of the best football prediction sites to help you compare and choose the best games.
4. Choose Your Betting System
At this point, there are two aspects involved. The first aspect consists of choosing what kind of bets you'd make: singles, multiple or combination bets.
In single bets, you stake on each selection you make; if that selection loss, then you lose that stake; on the other hand, if it wins, your winning will be for the odds on that particular selection. The payouts are usually small, but they come with less risk.
Multiple bets allow you to accumulate your selections, and the total odd is a multiplication of the individual odd on each selection. They help you accumulate high odd, and the profits usually are high with a little stake, but it comes with increased risk.
You have to think carefully and decide which betting system is suitable for your strategy.
The second aspect involves what part of the game you choose to bet on: double chance, handicap, last-minute goal, over/under, scorecast/wincast, etc.
5. Test and Refine Your Strategy
After designing a strategy, you have to test it with limited stakes and scrutinize it to ascertain if it works. Monitor how well the bets you've made turn out. With every result, tweak the strategy a little by altering a variable or adding a new variable that you probably overlooked initially. You can also discard any variable you discover to be useless.
The easiest and safest betting strategy is to find quility football predictions website and stick to the Value bets (we call those Bankers). Few things to remember:
- All predictions must be FREE
- Predictions should be Big Data based
- Website must monitor Bookmaker odds in real time via API connection
Check our Predictions tab to get the best football predictions in Nigeria today! Betting on our Banker bets is proven as the best betting strategy to make stable profit, specially EPL games.
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